“It has become a shame that many people have seen a civil war escalating in Ethiopia, with Ethiopia leading what it terribly called a “law enforcement operation” in the area of Tigray labeling and pledging to destroy a terrorist organisation which the previous ruling party in Ethiopia – Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)”
What is happening in the region?
Targets around Tigray were bombed by Ethiopian ground forces and jet fighters, fighting Tigray People’s Liberation Front, the governing portion of its most northern region. Mr. Ahmed, the Prime Minister of Ethiopia claims the conflict is over, but there have been several intermittent clashes. The Internet and the telephone lines are shut down in most of the region which makes information hard to validate. Fighters of the TPLF presumably have melted in and hidden away in civilians in the other country, where international observers and Western diplomats believe they are training for an armed uprising. The TPLF vowed not to give up and turn Tigray into hell for the government of Ethiopia.
What has caused the fight?
The war started following an assault on the base of Ethiopia’s National Defense Force near Mekelle on November 4 by the TPLF militias. The assault was turned into the triggering point for Ahmed, whose earlier conciliatory strategy to deploying land and air forces was soon discarded. Both parties are potentially armed: artillery, long-range missiles and caches concealed throughout the area are controlled in the TPLF. The Ethiopian government announced a six-month situation of emergency in Tigray and closed down telephone and Internet services.
The Ethiopian state TV stated that more than 1,000 civilians were killed in the fighting. On 2 November Mr. Ahmed reported that everybody was a fighter and not a civilian, an assertion that TPLF denied. The data blackout in Tigray makes it impossible to objectively check these figures, and humanitarian organisations predict that several thousand casualties are likely. On 25 November, a news agency in the Amhara region in Ethiopia stated that over 10,000 Tigrayan personnel had been “killed”. More than 40,000 refugees from across the border have moved to Sudan, and relief groups estimate that they are planning 200,000 people for water, shelter and food.
Why are they fighting?
After Abiy’s rise to power in 2018, he introduced a variety of changes after he assumed power, which undermined the policy stance of the TPLF. The EPRDF was disbanded and the Prosperity Party formed, which gained it popular admiration from some and political hostility from others. In addition, Abiy suspended a number of Tigrayan citizens from elected offices after he became Prime Minister and detained some suspected of graft and other crimes. From that point on, Abiy and the federal government were harboured by Tigray and the TPLF.
More recently, in September, Tigray officials held elections in complete rebellion of the Ethiopian government that, due to the obvious coronavirus pandemic, delayed the general elections. Leaders of Tigray claimed Abiy weakened his leadership mandate by delaying general elections. The federal government voted in reaction to cut support for the region, an uproar to Tigrayan officials. The administration and TPLF had each other accusing themselves of using military action until the TPLF captured the federal military base on November 4.
What is the possible solution?
Every practical or financial assistance for faster revival of such programmes should be encouraged by the international community. The only way Tigray will get deeper in crisis is if TPLF could top up its weapons, fuel, troops, and food quickly declining. They have lost all the significant ground they could return and fight against at the moment. Deescalation will provide them only with the breathing room to group and recover elements needed to resume their war. It is now the duty of the international community to call on the TPLF to renounce this failed cause. If TPLF sincerely claims to lead or serve the Tigray people, it must not jeopardise them.
Moreover, Mr. Ahmed can only be compelled to work for a negotiated settlement to the crisis by such a concerted strategy, incorporating economic and political pressure. Such a result could not even exist over the last 60 years in Ethiopia, many of them characterised by political turmoil and violence. Nevertheless, their legal obligations under the International humanitarian law, including protecting civilians and impartial assistance for civilians in need, should be recalled by all parties.
Another choice is to plan the deteriorating humanitarian situation, especially the emerging Sudanese refugee crisis, in view of the possibility of protracted armed conflict. And while policymakers should do everything possible to urge both sides to end the war, they must still prepare to curb its destabilising consequences by supplying as much humanitarian relief as possible.
Author: Seyi Awoleye
Los-Angeles, USA
seyiawoleye@yahoo.com